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Vendors not backing down as house prices fall
When will house prices stop falling? No-one knows. But it looks like we are quite a long way off the bottom being reached for a number of reasons.
The house construction cycle explained
Development companies have been recently finding that client enquiries are falling away. People can see prices falling so will naturally feel the longer they wait perhaps the cheaper the construction cost will be.
Perception vs reality in the housing market
How do I know when a downturn in the market is serious, entrenched, and likely to last for some time? There are a number of measures I look at including data on prices and results from my surveys, but one special factor is the blame game.
The anatomy of a turning housing market
Here is a quick high level run-through of the main things happening in the residential real estate market on average in New Zealand.
My main housing thoughts - Tony Alexander
Recently, I wrote a lengthy article listing the main things I am saying about the NZ residential property market at the moment – some of which I have been warning about for 12-18 months. Here are most of those points in summarised form.
Housing market easing off still
Independent Economist Tony Alexander gives his take on the factors that are playing into falling house prices. Will things be easier for first home buyers with the housing market softening and easing CCCFA rules?
First home buyers should focus on choice, not potential for bargains
The expectation held by most of us is that average prices will fall about 10%. That sounds reasonable. But before anyone gets fixated on that number it pays to note something very important.
NZ housing is finally entering a buyer's market
Economist Tony Alexander says throughout 2022 and 2023, buyers are likely to keep holding the upper hand in negotiations. All one has to do however is either secure a mortgage (not so easy at the moment) or have cash and therefore no need for one in order to take advantage of this market.
Are we already in a credit crunch?
Lenders to consumers are having to take into account all potential changes in an applicant’s income and that is hitting people intending to take maternity/paternity leave along with those approaching retirement.
The slowing market is a good thing - Tony Alexander
There are five strong forces acting to pull back the level of intensity of buyer demand for residential property at the moment. But just because the boom has ended does not mean a crash is on its way.
More lending restrictions coming
The Reserve Bank have recently invited people to make submissions on their proposal to introduce debt to income requirements which banks must apply to new borrowers.
Rising mortgage rates will eventually dominate FOMO
With investors backing off it is understandable that the pace of increase in house prices has slowed down. In the six months to September 2020, average house prices around New Zealand rose by just 4%, including a 3% fall over the April-May months.
