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The economy is officially back in recession, and the prospects for a weaker labour market are scaring people. So, is everything bad and should we all go to Australia?

Most commentators are picking it'll be late 2024 (or worse, 2025) before interest rates start falling again — but the Chief, David Cunningham, reckons there's a strong case for the RBNZ to begin dropping rates much sooner.

Once inflation's got its hooks in, it can take years for interest rate hikes to trickle through and reverse the damage. But, as Rodney Dickens explains, a more proactive approach from the RBNZ could go a long way to solving that problem.

The Reserve Bank is giving nothing away ahead of its first Official Cash Rate announcement of the year, in late February, but the market is increasingly anticipating rate falls to start sometime this year.

With NZ's latest inflation numbers out in late January, it looks like we're finally winning the battle — and we could see annual inflation come down relatively quickly in the coming months. So what would that mean for interest rates?

Put really simply, the Official Cash Rate is the interest rate that the banks earn on any money they’re holding with the Reserve Bank, and the rate they pay if they need to borrow funds.

Wholesale rates are one of the big drivers of bank mortgage rates — and in the last eight weeks or so, they’ve fallen about 0.7%. It’s a significant drop, which means they’re now back down to roughly where they were a year ago. So what does this mean for borrower interest rates?

It feels pretty clear we're at the top of the current interest rate cycle. But with one more Official Cash Rate announcement to come for the year, what are the expectations for interest rates come 2024?

Central banks the world over have a bit of a bad habit of reactionary decision making. After overstimulating the economy big time when the pandemic hit by dropping rates to record lows, they were much too slow to jack rates up again when inflation started running rampant. And it's created such a big mess that Squirrel guest blogger, Rodney Dickens, reckons we're in for an extended battle to get us out of it again.

The Reserve Bank is holding the OCR steady at 5.50%, and after rumblings from parts of the market that suggest we could be in for another hike, most economists are now predicting the OCR will remain at 5.50% through much of 2024. It’s not the news that Kiwi mortgage-holders were hoping for, but how can Kiwi benefit from higher interest rates?

It came as no surprise to anyone in the world of economics and financial markets this week when the Reserve Bank left its official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%.

New Zealand has narrowly escaped the technical recession that was called a few months back — but Kiwi households are still feeling the pressure from high interest rates. So with an Official Cash Rate (OCR) announcement on the cards for 4th October, what’s likely to happen with mortgage rates from here?