Now with 2.50% worth of OCR cuts under our belt, interest rates have been tracking steadily downwards over the last few months.
While the shift has been positive for Kiwi borrowers—helping to bring some much needed-relief to the many households pushed to their limit by high mortgage costs in recent years—it's taking longer than expected for the benefit to flow through to the NZ economy.
We've still got a long way to go on our road to recovery.
Until earlier this month, the Reserve Bank was forecasting the OCR to bottom out at 3.00% (i.e. where we are now).
But in light of all the ongoing weakness we're seeing out there, it's now signaled its intention to (pending further data) deliver additional OCR cuts in late 2025 / early 2026, potentially bringing us down to 2.50%.
At that level, we should see the one-year fixed rate get down to somewhere near 4.50%.
With that said, here are the key OCR dates to watch for over the remainder of 2025 and into 2026:
- 8th October - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 26th November - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 18th February 2026 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 8th April 2026 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 27th May 2026 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 8th July 2026 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
Whatever the next few months might bring, you can always catch our latest analysis on the situation over on the Squirrel blog, helping to make sense of what the RBNZ announcements mean for Kiwi homeowners and our housing market.
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*There are two types of OCR announcement. Quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (in bold) are more in-depth – and may be where the RBNZ revises its forecasts. Monetary Policy Reviews are more of an interim update, or check-in, between MPS announcements.