Even with Kiwi borrowers finally starting to feel a bit of relief from lower interest rates, progress towards New Zealand's economic recovery has been slower than hoped.
The hurt of the last few years knocked consumer confidence in a big way, meaning people still aren't that comfortable opening their wallets, and many businesses are still doing it tough.
As a result, back in February, the RBNZ signalled its intention to hold the OCR fairly steady in 2026 (giving the economy a chance to get more firmly back on its feet) before starting the slow transition back to a 'neutral' OCR sometime towards the back end of the year.
But global volatility has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works.
Since late February, the Middle East conflict has sent oil prices surging, sparking major concerns around the future of global inflation, with wholesale rates climbing as a result.
As of May 2026, the RBNZ has indicated that interest rate hikes are coming sooner than previously expected—with the first 0.25% increase likely before September. Just how far and how fast they have to climb remains to be seen, depending on how quickly the crisis—and resulting inflationary pressures—gets resolved.
With that said, here are the key OCR dates to watch for in 2026:
- 8th July 2026 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 2nd September 2026 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 28th October 2026 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 9th December 2026 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
Whatever the next few months might bring, you can always catch our latest analysis on the situation over on the Squirrel blog, helping to make sense of what the RBNZ announcements mean for Kiwi homeowners and our housing market.
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*There are two types of OCR announcement. Quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (in bold) are more in-depth – and may be where the RBNZ revises its forecasts. Monetary Policy Reviews are more of an interim update, or check-in, between MPS announcements.