We’re still here. Still watching, waiting and side-eyeing the economy. But before we get into the global noise, let’s zoom in on Wellington.
The local property market is holding steady which is reflected in the enquiries I’m seeing. First home buyers are still leading the charge, and there are a number of clients wanting to sell their existing home, and upsize to larger properties as their households grow. More on that later.
Wellington's housing market by the numbers (thanks largely to REINZ):
- The House Price Index (HPI) is down 4.1% over the last year.
- That said, it’s only a 1.3% drop over the past three months, so softening, not spiralling.
- Nationally, prices are down 0.7% year-on-year, and 0.4% over the last quarter.
- Time to sell in the Wellington region has reduced to 41 days (as at 31 March 2025).
What’s behind the shift? It’s simply a reflection of supply and demand.
There’s plenty of stock out there, but fewer active buyers due to changes in employment and ongoing concerns around job security—although that’s starting to abate.
Generally, reductions in interest rates should see property values increase, however debt-to-income ratios (plus lots of listings) are keeping things balanced.
I’m hearing more investors are looking to sell too, but as always, timing is everything.
Shorter-term fixed rates are still heading south, but whether the banks decide to compete on the longer term rates, is the big question on everyone’s minds. We live in hope for a 4.99% three-year fixed rate.
Now, back to that upsizing trend – a.k.a. the chicken-and-egg dilemma.
Plenty of buyers are looking to trade up, but making the leap can feel daunting. You’ve generally three options for how to go about it:
- Sell, then buy. Nice and easy from a funders perspective, but leaves the initial seller with a bit of pressure to find a new home (without ending up in rental limbo).
- Buy, then sell. Not advisable unless you’re confident in your ability to cover two home loans should your existing property take a while to sell. Banks are still wary after they were left holding the bag on a number of transactions when house values dropped after November 2021 – not pretty!
- Buy conditional on sale. This is the purple unicorn, but it can be challenging to herd those cats and get ducks aligned. Make sure your adviser is across it all, and draft up a timeline of events – it’s generally my approach here.
Quick PSA for sellers: give careful consideration to the offers that come your way.
I’ve seen a number of vendors hold out in anticipation of betters offers—then, when those offers don’t eventuate, they end up having to go back to the original purchaser (tail between their legs) to see if they’re still interested.
A lot of the time the buyer has already moved on, and that can be a bitter pill to swallow.
Feel free to reach out if this is something you’re keen to explore – can be a bit tricky, but testing the waters never hurts.
And finally, I figured I’d touch briefly on international happenings i.e. Trump.
My gut suggests all will right itself eventually, but how much pain it takes to get there is anyone’s guess.
I don’t think reshoring manufacturing to the US is really on the cards, but correcting over-priced tech stock values and dropping the USD to make the national debt look a bit less terrifying? That’s more likely.
Just how much the US public (along with international trade partners) will put up with remains to be seen—although that’s playing out in real time now.
It feels like just another part of the cycle. Things will come around. I’ve had a few “what if” moments thinking through the alternatives, but odds are it’ll all blow over.
As always, feel free to reach out. I’m happy to shoot the breeze.