The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is officially on the way up again—but the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) is facing a pretty tricky balancing act at the moment, which means the path ahead is far from straightforward.
On the one hand, inflation is proving stickier than hoped, driven largely by high oil prices and rising administered costs (like rates and electricity).
On the other, our economic recovery remains very much a mixed bag. Certain sectors are performing well—but high unemployment and softness in the housing market are keeping a lid on consumer confidence (and demand).
Throw ongoing global economic and geopolitical volatility into the mix, and the situation get even trickier. Depending on how things play out overseas, New Zealand could find itself facing more inflation pressure, further economic weakness—or a bit of both. And each scenario could call for a very different approach to interest rates.
It's this combination of factors which saw the RBNZ hold the OCR steady at 2.75% on 28 October, despite widespread expectations of an increase.
Further hikes are still expected—but not guaranteed. If, when—and how quickly—they arrive will be heavily dependent on how inflation and broader economic data track over the coming weeks and months.
With that said, here are the key OCR dates to watch for over the rest of 2026 and into 2027:
- 9 December 2026 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 10 February 2027 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 17 March 2027 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 5 May 2027 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 16 June 2027 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
Whatever the next few months might bring, you can always catch our latest analysis on the situation over on the Squirrel blog, helping to make sense of what the RBNZ announcements mean for Kiwi homeowners and our housing market.
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*There are two types of OCR announcement. Quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (in bold) are more in-depth – and may be where the RBNZ revises its forecasts. Monetary Policy Reviews are more of an interim update, or check-in, between MPS announcements.