If we look across the globe, it doesn’t feel like many countries are out there kicking goals at the moment.
Some think the US is playing 4D checkers—but I’d argue it’s more like they’re playing charades by themself, and somehow still losing!
Why don’t we hold this thought for a moment, and I’ll stick to my knitting, for now….
Zooming in, here’s the local (Wellington) data comparing movements in house values and sales from December 2024 to December 2025—all pulled from Statistics NZ:
- Total house sales in Wellington (including Lower Hutt, Wellington City and Porirua) is 4,854 for the year ending December 2025, up 4.1% on the year ending December 2024 (4,663 total sales)
- Average house values (across all the above regions) was sitting at $795,450 for Q4 2025—marking a decrease of 3.7% from the December 2024 quarter.
Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to get my hands on figures for the mighty Upper Hutt—which was a little frustrating, as I’d imagine these would’ve been slightly more favourable, showing more new builds and potentially more growth in the first home buyer segment.
The key takeaway from these numbers is simply: slightly more sales, at (one would assume) a slightly diminished value.
We’re holding our own under challenging times is my ‘lipstick on a pig’ approach.
Anecdotally, we’re hearing (and seeing) a slight slow-down in numbers at open homes; and conditional offers, when made, are being accepted. Long live the buyers’ market! The latest figures available for February—courtesy of REINZ—confirm this, with a sales numbers down 5.7% year-on-year, and down 4.3% on January (seasonally adjusted).
Our latest Official Cash Rate (OCR) announcement has come and gone with very little fanfare and surprise—the result being no change.
When the Reserve Bank is lacking the usual backwards looking and ‘dated’ data, its best course of action is to hold the line. A kneejerk reaction either way wouldn’t be viewed too favourably by us punters, or the financial markets.
In light of all the volatility overseas, though, we have seen a bit of jostling across the banks. That’s because swap rates have jumped by about 0.4% in a very short space of time—which has seen NZ lenders increase rates two-years and out, extinguishing sub 5% rates for the three-year fixed term.
I did like the three-year rate as an option, as would see us through to a new US president, and (hopefully) some calmer waters.
I do still like it for a bit of stability—even now it’s sitting a bit higher—but am tempering it with a two-year fixed rate, as the difference of 0.3 – 0.4% is nothing to scoff at. Others still are choosing to run the gauntlet with the one-year fixed option, but that’s a bit of a gamble.
Many bank economists, and the Reserve Bank itself, are predicting rate increases this year of between 0.50 – 0.75%
The major determining factor will be inflation numbers, and how sticky it’s going to be—the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the longer it’ll hang around.
We’ve got our next round of inflation data (for Q1 2026) due out within the next week or so, which should give us an idea of the damage done thus far.
It’s worth noting, though, that the Strait closed on 2 March, with fuel costs impacted from 6 March—so only a portion of the impact will be reflected in that data.
My gut suggests we’re in for a bumpy road in the short term, with inflation likely to be stickier than many are currently predicting.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz was to open tomorrow, the infrastructure will need to be rebuilt, tolls paid, and the hamster wheel needs time to catch up. There’s no quick fix.
Have we been proactive enough in our response to the current predicament? Everyone’s entitled to their own opinion (I’m told), and I’m in the ‘no’ camp.
From EV subsidies being removed a while back, to the fast-track approach for the liquefied natural gas terminal, it feels like our actions contradict New Zealand’s clean green image.
(And I say that as someone who considers themself far from being a greenie, and who actually has bottled gas at home. I still just can’t see how it aligns.)
Our current leaders have signalled they don’t want their own version of Covid to front into—with people working from home—but putting in place a four-stage fuel management plan sure got me reminiscing! (Traffic lights, anyone?)
I think we should have moved to encouraging those to work from home where possible a couple of weeks ago – not because of potential shortages (which, at the time of writing, sound like they’re under control) but more from an inflationary perspective.
Save people having to spend their money on inflated fuel prices.
Hospitality would be hit somewhat, but they will be regardless, with surplus funds going to the pumps.
And that all brings me to my final point – who is winning out there?
As at April 2026, taxes and levies make up between 44% and 50% of fuel prices in New Zealand—which, since 2025, has translated to roughly $2 billion in revenue for government.
With Regular 91 and Premium 95 price up 31% and 30% respectively (and leaving diesel out of the equation) that’s an increase of $610m in revenue, if prices stick around at their current levels!
So whilst there’s a win in this area for NZ cashflow, hopefully those funds are used for the correct (business stimulating) purposes!
About the author: Nick Virtue, Squirrel Mortgage Adviser - Wellington
Nick cut his teeth inside the big banks—racking up 15 years' experience across SME, franchise, health and large corporate clients—before taking the leap to become a mortgage adviser in 2020. As one of our resident Wellington home loan experts, Nick knows the Capital (and its housing market) like the back of his hand. Whether working with clients or chatting to media, he has a way of breaking down the complex world of mortgages into simple, easy-to-understand language.