Well, the World Cup has come and gone—congrats to Spain.
I was rooting for Argentina, given our neighbours here at Squirrel Welly are from that neck of the woods—support local and all that.
To be honest, I’m a bit of a fair-weather football supporter, as a lot of us possibly are.
With all the offshore volatility out there, it feels a bit like we’ve got one foot on the accelerator, one on the brake at the moment.
A bit of bad news puts people on the back foot, but after a couple of weeks, we move on—the hesitancy disappears—and we’re back at it.
There’s probably more of that to come with the general election coming up—as parties make errors, or scandals come to the light in the lead up (which they always do).
We’ll touch on the news of our latest Official Cash Rate (OCR) announcement shortly.
But first up, let’s look at the Wellington property market, by the numbers for end of June (from REINZ):
- Properties are taking an average of 56 days to sell at the moment—up from 45 days in April and two days on the same time last year. That’s market seasonality in full effect, though.
- Sales numbers are also down circa 10% compared to June 2025—520 sales for the Wellington region in June 2026 compared to 580 in June 2025.
- Median house prices have held up compared to same time last year (no change), but are down slightly (2.6%) from May. I’ll take a normalisation of the position for now.
It’s worth noting that some of this data likely reflects uncertainty around the OCR. Interest rates are an uncontrollable factor, of course—and although you want to bear them in mind, how long do you try to predict out for?
In theory, higher interest rates can mean lower property sales prices. The really critical thing though is the banks ‘test’ rates (allowing for borrowing appetite – see 2021…), and these have started to creep a little—but not enough yet to have a material impact.
As it stands, it’s still very much a buyers’ market out there. And it’s important to remember that, even though interest rates fluctuate over the life of a loan, the lending amount is set from when you borrow, and lower is better of course.
The OCR, interest rates and everything else impacting you financially
The Reserve Bank had signalled its intentions early on—and July’s OCR announcement brought the promised increase.
(Despite some economists losing their nerve in the lead up, and suggesting a move wasn’t needed.)
We could argue about whether or not the RBNZ got it right until we’re blue in the face. My thoughts? I think we could’ve moved earlier to get ahead for a change, rather than wait it out.
Many were looking at what was going on in the Middle East, and thought it was all under control—it wasn’t, and still isn’t.
I thought that 'guy’ (a few other choice names come to mind) might want to get it resolved to give voters a bit of a sugar hit ahead of the upcoming US mid-terms—and to be fair, he gave it a crack—but ultimately, he couldn’t help himself. Other third parties involved indirectly gave Iran and the US the impetus to kick it all off again.
Be better guys, the price is literally in human lives.
The latest inflation data’s just come out as well—tracking at 4.1% annually to the June 2026 quarter.
And truth be told, I don’t think that’s going anywhere for a bit.
The options for the Middle East are status quo, or invasion (Kharg Island)—either of which will see inflation hang around. It’s a lose-lose for the US, but watch Trump’s actions, not his mouth (on X or Truth Social or whatever he’s using these days) is my advice.
So far, I think we’ve weathered things pretty well. No doubt we’ll get hit with additional sanctions at some point for some reason, but it shouldn’t be enough to sway the needle. Transport costs will be the one to watch, which will hit our wallets directly.
What I'm advising clients to do in this current state of volatility is: take a spread. Put some on the black numbers, some on red ones, and even a bit on even or odd, if you’re into roulette.
One-, two- and three-year rates are my focus, with the majority on the two-year, and what’s left on the one- and three-year options.
Everyone’s situation (risk appetite, future plans) is different, so it’s important to note that this is not personalised financial advice.
If you want that, feel free to reach out so we can do a proper job, and get you set.
And because I finished on a quote last time, here’s another from Ben Franklin:
“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”
Go well, be better.
About the author: Nick Virtue, Squirrel Mortgage Adviser - Wellington
Nick cut his teeth inside the big banks—racking up 15 years' experience across SME, franchise, health and large corporate clients—before taking the leap to become a mortgage adviser in 2020. As one of our resident Wellington home loan experts, Nick knows the Capital (and its housing market) like the back of his hand. Whether working with clients or chatting to media, he has a way of breaking down the complex world of mortgages into simple, easy-to-understand language.