To say that the track for inflation and therefore interest rates going forward is relatively unclear would be an understatement. The rises in bank borrowing costs here have prompted banks to raise their fixed mortgage rates another 0.25% or so in the past couple of months despite no new rise in the official cash rate. So what will happen to mortgage interest rates, and are we headed into uncertain territory?
New Zealand banks have increased their fixed mortgage rates by about 0.25% over the last few weeks - despite the latest signal from the RBNZ being that hikes are (likely) done and dusted. So, what's that all about?
First home buyers are returning to the market despite higher mortgage interest rates. Even so, there is still no sign of a lift in buying by investors. So will 2024 shape up to be a good year for buyers?
The Reserve Bank has today pushed through a 0.25% increase to take us from 5.25%, up to its peak forecasted OCR of 5.50% - while also making it clear we've hit peak rates for this economic cycle.
There’s a pretty unanimous sense across the financial markets right now that there's another Official Cash Rate (OCR) hike in store for us this week. Chief Squirrel, David Cunningham, says that's the last thing we need.
Between a weakened construction sector, increasing migration and more businesses starting to retrench (both of which are helping to ease pressure in the job market), there are lots of signs out there to indicate that inflation’s coming under control. So, will there be another OCR increase?
The unemployment rate doesn’t just tell us where the economy’s at, or where inflation’s headed... it can actually also help to predict when house prices will take off again.
We’re only 0.25% off the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ’s) forecasted peak OCR – so will Kiwis be hit by other OCR hike, or have interest rates in New Zealand already peaked for this economic cycle?
With a great number of construction related businesses going into liquidation every week, negatives dominate in the house building sector and buyers need to apply extra caution as they contemplate getting a house built.
Even some of NZ's smartest economic minds hadn't picked that this latest spike in interest rates would be quite as swift and brutal as it's been. But according to Rodney Dickens, the writing was on the wall for all to see - so why weren't Kiwi borrowers warned?
Can the Reserve Bank get the balance right, bringing inflation under control without taking it too far, and sending us hurtling for a hard landing? Rodney Dickens says, if history's anything to go by, the chances aren't good.
Until recently, falling interest rates meant that no matter what you were investing in you almost couldn't go wrong... Asset prices across the board just kept going up. But those lucrative days are behind us.