I'm writing this month’s update from India, where I'm spending some quality time with family, including my parents, which I’ve really been looking forward to.
It’s been a busy year, as I’m sure it has been for many of you too. Hopefully, you’ve got some time planned over the next couple of months to step away, spend time with family, and properly switch off for a bit.
Back home though, there’s still plenty happening in the property market as we head towards the end of 2026.
The election has come and gone, but we’re still waiting on the final outcome.
Official results are due on 27 November, so there’s a little more uncertainty to work through before things become clearer.
For first-home buyers, the election doesn’t appear to have had much impact on activity. Investors and developers, on the other hand, may have their eye on the results a little more closely.
Then there’s interest rates.
The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.75% at its October meeting, but only just. The vote was split 4-3, with three members wanting to increase it to 3%.
That tells us another increase is certainly possible, although when that might happen remains to be seen.
For anyone with a mortgage coming up for renewal, my advice would be to get organised sooner rather than later. Have a chat with your adviser about your fixed-rate options, how your mortgage is structured and what makes sense for your circumstances over the next 12 months.
It’s also worth remembering that the interest rate isn’t the only thing to consider.
Banks are still offering cashbacks to attract new lending and customers switching from other lenders, with cash contributions of up to around 1% available in some cases. Of course, offers depend on your circumstances and the lender, but it’s another reason to explore your options rather than focusing on the advertised interest rate alone.
Looking closer to home, Canterbury’s property market continues to show encouraging signs.
The latest REINZ figures put Canterbury’s median sale price at $715,000, up 0.8% on a year earlier.
While that’s a relatively modest increase, the House Price Index tells us a slightly different story, with Canterbury up 3.1% year-on-year, making it one of the stronger-performing regions in the country.
Buyer sentiment has remained relatively steady, with first-home buyers and owner-occupiers continuing to drive most of the activity.
There’s plenty of variation across the region too. Christchurch City’s median sale price sat at $715,000 in September, compared with $783,000 in Selwyn and $740,000 in Waimakariri.
Further afield, areas like Ashburton, Timaru and the wider Canterbury districts give buyers plenty of options, depending on their budget and what they’re looking for.
That’s really my message heading towards the end of the year. There’s plenty of noise around politics, interest rates and the wider economy, but making property decisions based on your own circumstances is far more important than trying to predict exactly what the market will do next.
Whether your mortgage is coming up for renewal, you’re looking to buy, or you’re starting to think about your next property move in 2027, now could be a good time to have a chat with your mortgage adviser and put a plan in place.
About the author: Nathan Miglani, Squirrel Managing Adviser - Christchurch & South Island
Let’s just say Nathan’s not one to do things by halves. Since arriving in NZ over a decade ago, he’s built a Christchurch-based Loan Market franchise from scratch, turned it into an award-winning brokerage, and taken out the title Loan Market’s #1 mortgage adviser in Australasia in 2022. After rebranding to NZ Mortgages in 2023—and doubling down on customer-first service—he teamed up with Squirrel in 2024 to bring even sharper mortgage and funding solutions to clients. Regularly featured in the media, Nathan’s the guy you want in your corner for anything from business lending, property investment to construction finance.