With over three decades of experience closely watching and reporting on the New Zealand economy, Tony’s the go-to guy when it comes to the inner workings of the economy, and how it affects every day New Zealanders. After leaving the corporate world in 2019, Tony started writing independently, regularly surveying professionals in the industry, and putting together updates that are easily digestible for home buyers, businesses and investors. Catch him on our blog every month.
The Reserve bank has grown more concerned about the pace with which inflation is falling in New Zealand, and have slightly delayed their pick for when they cut the official cash rate from the middle of 2025 into the second half. But will there be a chance that house prices will start falling while the OCR stays stuck at 5.50%?
At a time when more vendors are appearing, buyers are backing away. And it's not because of increased worries about interest rates or access to credit. Instead, worries about job security have taken centre stage.
Despite hopes of interest rate declines, booming population growth, and changes in tax rules, fewer investors are looking to make another property purchase. So why is this the case?
The economy is officially back in recession, and the prospects for a weaker labour market are scaring people. So, is everything bad and should we all go to Australia?
Building costs have shot up by a whopping 40% over the last 3-4 years, and when you throw in sky-high interest rates and hurdles from the Resource Management Act, developers and home buyers alike are dealing with a real headache.
Many Kiwi who had been holding off selling their properties are now putting them up for sale. But with plenty of existing properties entering the market, the outlook has just darkened further for developers of multi-unit complexes.
The toilet paper shortage crisis is over — but is it turn for housing shortages in New Zealand?
If the Reserve Bank were to raise the cash rate again, they would overly depress the economy and end up having to cut interest rates aggressively through 2025 and 2026. So is it still likely that an extra tightening of monetary policy will occur?
With most people now back at work and the kids back at school, passage of time away from the election and pre-Xmas hassles will likely start encouraging more people to give thought to buying or selling a house. But can we see evidence yet that a new wave of buyers is coming through?
Why Tony Alexander believes that the 6% annualised pace of house price gains seen in the second half of 2023 may almost double once we get to the second half of this year.
Do we have any evidence in hand of the impact on the residential real estate market yet of the recent round of fixed mortgage rate increases undertaken by banks? Yes, we do.
My monthly survey has shown a decrease in the net proportion of these investors thinking about buying another property from 10% down to only 2%.