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Updated NZ mortgage rate forecast for 2022
In last year’s mortgage rate forecast, we predicted rates would drop below 2.00% and stay low, which they did for most of 2021. Our house price prediction wasn't so on the money, but that one comes down to a matter of timing. Here's our latest analysis.
Is it better to fix or float your home loan?
In this article we’re looking at how to pick the right fixed home loan rate term in a rising interest rate environment.
Are we living beyond our means?
New Zealanders have over $320 billion of household debt, but what does that mean for house prices and for the wider economy?
House price growth has accelerated
I know from experience that accurately predicting house price movements over short periods of time is impossible. But one can balance the various factors in play and see what the trend seems to be and where it may be heading.
New tax rules for property owners
The government this week clarified details of its housing tax policy changes announced on March 23, and they were slightly less bad than expected.
The housing market has been strengthening since May
Nationwide average house sale prices rose by 2% in August. This followed a 2.4% rise in July, 1% gain in June, 0.8% rise in May and just a 0.5% rise in April.
How the latest lockdown is expected to impact our housing market
Now that we are experiencing lockdown again, can we expect the same things to happen in the residential real estate market and economy as last time? No. There are some key differences between this situation and that of March 2020.
Delay in monetary policy tightening may boost housing
I recently wrote about the end-game being underway for the three decade period of high average house price rises. I still remain of that view, but for now the market retains considerable strength.
Multiple factors contributing to a slower housing market
There are a growing number of factors in play which suggest that while demand for housing will remain firm, we've entered the end game for the period of strong house price rises well exceeding the rate of growth in household incomes.
Higher interest rates will slow but not crush NZ economic growth
Two week’s ago expectations for interest rate changes in New Zealand took a leap up in response to the June quarter inflation number coming in 0.5% higher than anticipated. This is a very rare event and the signal it has sent is that the pace of growth in our economy is too strong for the Reserve Bank to be confident of containing inflation below 3%.
Mortgage rates on the rise
The world has been printing money for several years, in anticipation of inflation and interest rates eventually rising. Neither of those happened. But the short-term has changed.
Shock from the housing announcement wearing off
Whenever things like the global pandemic, the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis, or tax policy alterations happen such as those announced on March 23, most of us can take a view on what the likely impact will be. Sometimes these views can be horribly wrong.
