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Rising mortgage rates will eventually dominate FOMO
With investors backing off it is understandable that the pace of increase in house prices has slowed down. In the six months to September 2020, average house prices around New Zealand rose by just 4%, including a 3% fall over the April-May months.
Updated NZ mortgage rate forecast for 2022
In last year’s mortgage rate forecast, we predicted rates would drop below 2.00% and stay low, which they did for most of 2021. Our house price prediction wasn't so on the money, but that one comes down to a matter of timing. Here's our latest analysis.
House price growth to fade next year
On average, NZ house prices have risen by 35% since March 2020 when we went into the first nationwide lockdown. This week we're focusing on the growing list of reasons why the pace of house price inflation will slow quite sharply over 2022.
House price growth has accelerated
I know from experience that accurately predicting house price movements over short periods of time is impossible. But one can balance the various factors in play and see what the trend seems to be and where it may be heading.
A different truth about house prices
I love property. Early last year I wrote that I thought we were going into the last great property boom based on ultra-low interest rates and the increasing importance of having a home in the post COVID world.
New tax rules for property owners
The government this week clarified details of its housing tax policy changes announced on March 23, and they were slightly less bad than expected.
The big difference between buying a home in 2008 and buying a home in 2021
My own experience of two first home buyers 13 years apart shows that servicing hasn’t changed all that much. It's as hard today as it was 13 years ago. But what it doesn’t show is the sizeable part of our population that are locked out of the housing market altogether.
The housing market has been strengthening since May
Nationwide average house sale prices rose by 2% in August. This followed a 2.4% rise in July, 1% gain in June, 0.8% rise in May and just a 0.5% rise in April.
How the latest lockdown is expected to impact our housing market
Now that we are experiencing lockdown again, can we expect the same things to happen in the residential real estate market and economy as last time? No. There are some key differences between this situation and that of March 2020.
House price forecast for 2022
We're starting to see commentators and even the Reserve Bank talk about falling house prices towards the end of next year. We shouldn't be surprised that none of these predictions are from real estate companies who bring the figurative cocaine to the house party. Here's my perspective on house prices from the frontline.
Multiple factors contributing to a slower housing market
There are a growing number of factors in play which suggest that while demand for housing will remain firm, we've entered the end game for the period of strong house price rises well exceeding the rate of growth in household incomes.
Shock from the housing announcement wearing off
Whenever things like the global pandemic, the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis, or tax policy alterations happen such as those announced on March 23, most of us can take a view on what the likely impact will be. Sometimes these views can be horribly wrong.
