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10 April 2024

Rodney's Ravings: RBNZ doesn't need new labour market indicators, it needs better judgement

New research from the RBNZ highlights the four key indicators that (it believes) give us the best idea of where inflation is at, and where it's headed. But Squirrel guest blogger, Rodney Dickens, reckons it's the RBNZ's judgement that needs work more than anything.

26 March 2024

Opinion: The RBNZ needs to start cutting interest rates, ASAP

Most commentators are picking it'll be late 2024 (or worse, 2025) before interest rates start falling again — but the Chief, David Cunningham, reckons there's a strong case for the RBNZ to begin dropping rates much sooner.

06 March 2024

Rodney's Ravings: The major flaws in the Reserve Bank's OCR decision-making

Once inflation's got its hooks in, it can take years for interest rate hikes to trickle through and reverse the damage. But, as Rodney Dickens explains, a more proactive approach from the RBNZ could go a long way to solving that problem.

13 February 2024

Rodney's Ravings: The government's heavy hand in inflation woes

Price rises in recent years have hit some areas much harder than others - and Squirrel guest blogger, Rodney Dickens, reckons the government's got something to do with that (and not in a good way).

09 February 2024

Market update: The waiting game continues, but more expecting rate falls in 2024

The Reserve Bank is giving nothing away ahead of its first Official Cash Rate announcement of the year, in late February, but the market is increasingly anticipating rate falls to start sometime this year.

05 February 2024

Why interest rates could be likely to tumble

With NZ's latest inflation numbers out in late January, it looks like we're finally winning the battle — and we could see annual inflation come down relatively quickly in the coming months. So what would that mean for interest rates?

23 January 2024

What is the Official Cash Rate, exactly?

Put really simply, the Official Cash Rate is the interest rate that the banks earn on any money they’re holding with the Reserve Bank, and the rate they pay if they need to borrow funds.

16 October 2023

Rodney’s Ravings: Why the world is in for a prolonged inflation battle

Central banks the world over have a bit of a bad habit of reactionary decision making. After overstimulating the economy big time when the pandemic hit by dropping rates to record lows, they were much too slow to jack rates up again when inflation started running rampant. And it's created such a big mess that Squirrel guest blogger, Rodney Dickens, reckons we're in for an extended battle to get us out of it again.

04 October 2023

Official cash rate holds steady at 5.50%

It came as no surprise to anyone in the world of economics and financial markets this week when the Reserve Bank left its official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%.

18 August 2023

Market update: OCR stable at 5.50%, but Kiwi are holding their breath for election day

Sticking to the path it laid out for us in July, the RBNZ has opted to hold the OCR steady at 5.50% - and they're saying it might be 2025 before rates start to come down again. But global uncertainties, deflationary forces in China and the upcoming election has everyone holding their breath.

07 August 2023

Rodney's Ravings: The wage-price spiral means we’re in for a more painful inflation battle

The RBNZ's hard-line approach to rate hikes seems to have inflation (slowly but surely) tracking in the right direction. But according to Squirrel guest blogger, Rodney Dickens, there's one factor in particular which is going to make it a long, tough road to get us back where we need to be.

31 July 2023

Uncertain times ahead for borrowers

To say that the track for inflation and therefore interest rates going forward is relatively unclear would be an understatement. The rises in bank borrowing costs here have prompted banks to raise their fixed mortgage rates another 0.25% or so in the past couple of months despite no new rise in the official cash rate. So what will happen to mortgage interest rates, and are we headed into uncertain territory?