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Housing Market

Perception vs reality in the housing market

How do I know when a downturn in the market is serious, entrenched, and likely to last for some time? There are a number of measures I look at including data on prices and results from my surveys, but one special factor is the blame game.

Housing Market

My main housing thoughts - Tony Alexander

Recently, I wrote a lengthy article listing the main things I am saying about the NZ residential property market at the moment – some of which I have been warning about for 12-18 months. Here are most of those points in summarised form.

Housing Market

Housing market easing off still

Independent Economist Tony Alexander gives his take on the factors that are playing into falling house prices. Will things be easier for first home buyers with the housing market softening and easing CCCFA rules?

Housing Market

Market update: House prices take a hit, but do they have further to fall?

With so many different forces playing out in the market right now - interest rates, inflation, the border reopening - how far might they go?

Housing Market

First home buyers should focus on choice, not potential for bargains

The expectation held by most of us is that average prices will fall about 10%. That sounds reasonable. But before anyone gets fixated on that number it pays to note something very important.

Housing Market

Is the boom over?

In my last column a fortnight ago I noted that a buyer’s market is now locked into place around most parts of New Zealand. This week we received confirmation of the same thing from the REINZ’s monthly data release.

Housing Market

NZ housing is finally entering a buyer's market

Economist Tony Alexander says throughout 2022 and 2023, buyers are likely to keep holding the upper hand in negotiations. All one has to do however is either secure a mortgage (not so easy at the moment) or have cash and therefore no need for one in order to take advantage of this market.

Housing Market

The slowing market is a good thing - Tony Alexander

There are five strong forces acting to pull back the level of intensity of buyer demand for residential property at the moment. But just because the boom has ended does not mean a crash is on its way.

Housing Market

Rising mortgage rates will eventually dominate FOMO

With investors backing off it is understandable that the pace of increase in house prices has slowed down. In the six months to September 2020, average house prices around New Zealand rose by just 4%, including a 3% fall over the April-May months.

Housing Market

House price growth to fade next year

On average, NZ house prices have risen by 35% since March 2020 when we went into the first nationwide lockdown. This week we're focusing on the growing list of reasons why the pace of house price inflation will slow quite sharply over 2022.

Housing Market

Are we living beyond our means?

New Zealanders have over $320 billion of household debt, but what does that mean for house prices and for the wider economy?

Housing Market

House price growth has accelerated

I know from experience that accurately predicting house price movements over short periods of time is impossible. But one can balance the various factors in play and see what the trend seems to be and where it may be heading.